It's a Small, Small World

by Ed Newman
AMSOIL Marketing & Advertising Manager
This article appeared in National Oil & Lube News, April 2001

In 1889, Thomas Curtis Clarke opened his essay on "The Building of a Railway" with these words: "The world of today differs from that of Napoleon more than his world differed from that of Julius Caesar; and this change has chiefly been made by railways." Little did he know how transfigured our world would become, first by multiplying transportation routes, and later communications.

I'm currently reading a book by Stephen Ambrose about the building of the transcontinental railroad, the most ambitious engineering feat of the 19th century. Before the railroad there were three routes to California: overland, across the Panama Isthmus, and around South America's Cape Horn. The overland route was tedious, time consuming and dangerous. But travelling by sea proved no better. New York to California by boat, via Cape Horn, was a 196 day trip that included storms, seasickness, bad food and occasional shortages of water. The young, fit and ambitious who attempted to take the Panama shortcut had to risk life threatening fevers, and hope that a boat was waiting on the other side when they sloshed through.

Financiers, engineers and an army of workers built the railroads. The nation reaped its benefits. The United States and her territories finally became acquainted. The size of our country began to shrink and become manageable. Relatives who went west no longer disappeared forever. They were eventually only days away.

In the last half of our century we've seen a further shrinking of our nation and the world. Airplane travel has become commonplace. California, once half a year's journey, was now less than half a day, once you include layovers. Indeed, the world keeps shrinking.

Rise of the Global Economy
The rapid growth of globalization in the 20th century is unprecedented. The interconnectedness of all nations can be seen on many fronts. Global corporations controlling the food supply have increasingly eliminated small scale farming, whether in the United States, Africa or Asia. In the realm of currencies, a devaluation of Mexico's peso can spread panic through Latin American financial markets resulting in speculation against the Hong Kong dollar that forces China to devalue the yuan. We listen to Sony CD players, wear Gucci watches and drink German beer.

On a personal level, I recall the difficulty of replacing a broken Korean made tail light on my 1979 Olds. My 1972 Ford had a Windsor (Canada) engine. In fact, the auto industry is rampant with visible signs of the global economy, from Mercedes to Datsun, Toyota to Peugeot, and Bimmer to Beetle. And who knows for sure how many components in a 2001 American-made car are American made?

Now what's this all got to do with the changing oil in Austin? I believe Stefan Korcek has been trying to tell us.

Stefan Korcek, a research engineer from the Ford Motor Company, addressed the first joint meeting of the Coordinating European Council (CEC) and Society of Auto Engineers (SAE) last June in Paris. Korcek presented his idea of what the future of lubrication might look like.

In his address last summer Mr. Korcek noted that there are three main technology drivers in the development of new oil technologies: customer satisfaction, resource utilization and the environmental impact. One measure that satisfies all three of these demands, said Korcek, is fuel economy. The real pressure comes from government regulation which seeks to speed up the process, tightening emissions standards.

One of the complications with regard to motor oil development is the proliferation of different categories around the world and the growing number of new proprietary tests to satisfy the appetite of a specific engine. (*) Car manufacturers and oil companies end up in a tug of war as they try to define a strategic approach to uniform standards.

To a certain extent we are at a crossroads. Making decisions today is dependent upon where we want to be tomorrow. For example, in one possible scenario, each car engine will have a single specific oil for that car alone. While this would solve certain problems for the car manufacturer, it would become an inventory nightmare for oil change specialists.

Korcek suggested an alternative scenario might be the development of a single global standard for motor oil. Engines would then be designed to this lubricant standard. The problem here would involve deciding upon the standard.

In Europe, where cars are brought to car dealerships for oil and filter changes, a goal of 50,000 km is being touted for passenger cars. In the U.S., where motorists are accustomed to using lower cost quick lubes, most OEMs have a 25,000 km goal (approx. 15,000 miles). In either case, there is a desire to extend drain intervals.

The bottom line is this: the globalization of lubricant specifications and the extending of drain intervals are certain to happen. The world is getting smaller, but it is still too complex. Consumers want convenience, simplicity and efficiency. Specifically, they want to change their oil less often. They do not want to have to look for API, ACEA or JASO specs on a bottle of oil.

How the automotive, oil and quick oil change industries are affected by these consumer desires and government pressures waits to be seen. As we enter the new century we can expect the changes to be as dramatic as the transition from horses to trains to automobiles. Those companies that adapt by providing consumers with what they want will survive. Those that do not will very likely go the way of buggy whip manufacturers.

* Stefan Korcek on speeding up development of new oil technologies; Larry Smith, Infineum Insight, January 2001, p. 14-15.